Folks, we are back. Off The Wall had a decent run in 2024 with the IFL gambling picks, going 60-58-1 (thanks a lot San Diego), with plenty of nail biters, late night sweats, tremendous weeks, horrendous weeks and plenty of weeks in between.
It felt like the AFL was really missing that with their games last season, but tbh getting that season even completed felt like a blessing all things considered.
So when the AF1 announced their betting partnership with BettorEdge, I was ECSTATIC to be able to do gambling picks for AF1 games as well. Some folks did picks straight up last season and boasted about their percentage, but it didn't take a rocket scientist to pick Billings & Albany all year and call it a day.
The lines & totals add another element to picking games and will lead to some unbelievable heartbreak and triumph at several points this season and I, for one, can't wait.
The good news is we got off to a 1-0 start last week thanks to the late game heroics of one Michael Lawson (friend of the show), covering the -9.5 and making me look like I know what I am talking about in the process.
You know what's better than going 1-0 in Week 0? How about going 3-0 in Week 1?!
Do we have what it takes?! Let's find out.
2025 AF1 Record: 1-0
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
AF1 Week 1
The Play: Under 70.5
One of the most underrated signings of the offseason in the AF1 was the addition of DB Keon Clary to the Billings Outlaws secondary. Clary played for the SW Kansas Storm last season and had a really good campaign playing opposite of Michael Lawson.
DB Cedric Thomas is already returning for Billings, and he had a fantastic 2024 regular season as well as a great playoff run on the way to the ArenaBowl. Oh, and this is STILL a Cedric Walker coached team, so those DBs are gonna be ready to play!
Oregon is one of the biggest question marks of the AF1 for me. There is just a lot we don’t know about them personnel wise, with not a lot of experience at the higher end of arena football competition. Inexperience paired with going up against the defending champs is a less than ideal combination.
Billings has a younger team (like they did last year) and just recently brought in QB Andre Sale & WR Lex Rosario from Orlando (RIP), so I think it’ll be a lower scoring game with the tempo dictated by the Outlaws as they get things figured out on the offensive side of the ball. That Outlaws secondary is no joke and is going to be a tough test for the Lightning right out of the gate.
Billings -16.5 is a scary number for any road team in Week 1 (and it's a littttttle chalky to me), so I’ll go with the Under.
Prediction: 40-27 Billings
The Play: Salina +2.5
This is the only game of the weekend where the road team is NOT favored, but I absolutely think they should be. I think top to bottom Salina has a better roster, but Corpus Christi has some sneaky good talent throughout. This will be Corpus Christi’s first ever game with arena football rules, after working with indoor rules in their inaugural season last year, so it will be interesting to what their overall identity is going to be.
Both QBs for Corpus Christi have experience with indoor rules, which isn’t a bad thing but will take some time to get adjusted to arena rules. QB Ja’Vonte Johnson has more overall experience, so you’d think he would get the nod in this first game but QB Fred Payton had some flashes of potential last year in the IFL with the Jacksonville Sharks.
But all that to say, I think Salina gets the win here. Salina has a veteran secondary, with the reigning AFL Defensive of the Year in Freddie McGee, along with a dynamic passing rushing group in Henry Kellogg, Travis Taylor & Kerry Starks.
If you’re giving Coach Heron O’Neal points with a veteran roster, I am taking the points.
Prediction: 48-38 Salina
The Play: Over 80.5
ANOTHER big time home-dog spot. Oh don’t you tempt me with a good time.
Southwest Kansas is coming off of a big Week 0 win against the Nashville Kats, where the offense started to piece things together in the second half and the defense came up BIG with 7 turnovers. They looked really good for an opening game and can be a VERY dangerous team if they can clean some things up in the red zone and QB Jalen Morton gets dialed in with the deep ball.
WRs Daquan Bailey Brown & Shiloh Flanagan shined last week and I think we’ll see even more out of them this week in Everett, WA.
Washington has veteran QB Joseph Hess leading the way and just brought in WR Aakiel Greer from Arizona (RIP) and the Wolfpack coaching staff started to get things going in the end of 2024 after a rough start to the season on the field.
I think we see SWK QB Jalen Morton start his MVP campaign and Washington is gonna have to keep up and fire away in this one. This should be a highly entertaining game with a handful of one play drives and special teams TDs.
Give me the Over, babyyyyyy.
Prediction: 51-40 Southwest Kansas
Alrighty folks there it is. Godspeed to all of you and let's have ourselves a weekend.
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