We had a little slate of just two games in the AF1 last week, but we finally saw the anticipated season debut of the Albany Firebirds.
AF1 lines have been tricky to navigate as we figure these teams out and get a better feel for how the lines and totals are determined, but so far we're not too shabby.
AF1 Week 2 Review
Albany -6.5 - Winner
Albany wins and covers 78-20
Oregon-Washington O80.5 - Loser
Combined for 63 points
Unfortunately, not too shabby is not what we aim for.
Albany was sweat free as you could possibly get, and Oregon-Washington was such a dumb, fun, chaotic game that I am not even made about losing it. But now it's time to lock in.
Let's dig in and dig deep to get over .500 on the year.
2025 AF1 Record: 3-3
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
Salina Liberty vs Corpus Christi Tritons (Friday 3/28 @ 8 PM ET)
The Play: Salina +13.5
Now I know what you may say -- "But Trey, Salina just got ROCKED by Corpus Christi a few weeks ago. How could you POSSIBLY pick them this week" Great question.
Salina's Week 1 game was an absolute doomsday scenario. 6 INTs, no offensive production and just giving points to the defense on multiple pick sixes. No good, bad bad BAD night.
Absolute doomsday and...they only lost by 26. Now I know "Only" is doing a LOT of heavy lifting here, but all things considered that final score of that Week 1 game should have been much, much, MUCH worse than it actually was. You take away 2 pick sixes and reduce those turnovers to only 4 -- suddenly its a 12 to 14 point game while still committing 4 turnovers. Salina's defense didn't get as much credit as they deserved for their performance in Week 1 and if they can get a similar one this week and literally get ANYTHING out of their offense, they should cover with ease and potentially steal the win.
(I dare say sprinkle a little bit on the +662 ML -- because that is outrageous value for the roster that Salina actually has.) But Corpus Christi will also be better this week, so I anticipate a much closer game this go around. (and hopefully two sets of rebound nets)
Prediction: 44-42 Corpus Christi
Albany Firebirds vs Nashville Kats (Saturday 3/29 @ 6 PM ET)
The Play: Albany -10.5
Albany just looks like an absolute wagon in the AF1 this year. Offense was humming in their season debut last week against a hot SW Kansas Storm defense and the Firebirds Defense was swarming and playing aggressive at every level.
Nashville has not played since Week 0 and has had quite an overhaul across multiple positions -- including QB, WR & DB -- all of which are pretty important pieces in the arena football game. They do bring in former Marshall QB and arena veteran Rakeem Cato, but I just have a hard time imagining this Firebirds team not steamrolling the Kats in this one.
Kats should look better than they did in Week 0..or at least they better hope they do. They had 7 turnovers in that season opener against the Storm. Cato should push them in the right direction, but it's gonna be a long night in Nashville.
Prediction: 63-33 Albany
Oregon Lightning vs Southwest Kansas Storm (Sunday 3/30 @ 6 PM ET)
The Play: Over 72.5
That -18.5 number is startling and the biggest of the season so far -- but I can see where it is coming from. SW Kansas hit a massive speed bump last week against Albany and Oregon has failed to finish strong in the second half in their first 2 AF1 games of the season.
Oregon QB Dalton Cole has been pretty good all things considered in the first half of games, but the team overall will have to do better to keep this one in reach. I don't like the -18.5 number without Storm WR Da'Quan Bailey Brown (who is now out for the season with a torn achilles), but I do think the SW Kansas has enough fire power to still score points.
This one should be higher scoring than you'd think, but still see SW Kansas winning semi-comfortably.
Prediction: 49-38 Southwest Kansas
Let's breakthrough above .500 folks! What games you watching this weekend?