AF1 Week 4 Picks
- offthewallfbpod
- Apr 4
- 3 min read
The AF1 season has been a fun one so far with so INCREDIBLE finishes and it's shaping up to get even better with some of the matchups that we have on the horizon.
We're finally going to be seeing a lot more teams in action on a weekly basis, but man, the spread betting has been TOUGH.
AF1 Week 3 Review
Salina +13.5 - Loser
Salina loses 37-51, 0.5 point from covering
Albany -10.5 - Loser
Albany wins 42-34, 2.5 points from covering
Oregon-SW Kansas Over 72.5 - Winner
81 combined points
What a brutal week for the spread. The Albany result I can live with, because it was a hard fought game and Nashville came out swinging early. Oregon-SW Kansas tried their best to not hit the Over but persevered in the dying moments of the game to make it happen.
But how Salina fumbled this cover away will live rent free in my head for all eternity:
Just gross and disgusting work from Salina. Off The Wall dropped to 4-5 on the year after Week 3, but we do have GOOD NEWS!
We started Week 4 with a BIG DUB! That's right, AF1 Game week started on Thursday night this week with some #AF1AfterDark and threw off my whole cadence of making picks and blogging about them -- but I got the pick in at the buzzer:
Billings was rolling on offense and Washington did just enough to get us over the edge. Always good to see the first pick reached the promised land, but we've got 2 more games for this week to dissect and examine.
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
2025 AF1 Record: 5-5
Oregon Lightning vs Nashville Kats (Friday 4/4 @ 7:30 PM ET)
The Play: Oregon +14.5
Nashville looked really solid last week against Albany, nearly pulling off the win against a very good Firebirds team. QB Rakeem Cato was making things happen for the Kats early and really seemed to facilitate things on offense, which you would expect a veteran QB of the arena game to do.
But Rakeem Cato was released earlier this week (for reasons not totally clear at this point), so now they will have yet ANOTHER new starting QB in the mix.
If you are keeping track at home -- whoever goes out at QB will be the 3rd different starting QB & 4th overall QB for the Kats in 3 games. Not great! Add in the loss of WR Tre Long for the season due to injury, and suddenly this -14.5 number doesn't make sense.
Oregon, however, is coming off of a big win and QB Dalton Cole has been extremely productive on offense -- recently earning the Real American Beer Player of the Week award for the league. The passing attack has been on point for Oregon and defensively they've been able to get a ton of pressure on opposing QBs.
Oregon could easily be sitting at 2-1 right now, but are going into this game as double digit dogs against an 0-2 Kats team?
I'm taking Oregon and the points all day in this spot, and would sprinkle a bit on the Oregon ML at +695 as well.
(shameless plug, check out the interview this week on the podcast with DB Nick Brassell)
Prediction: 41-35 Oregon
Albany Firebirds vs Salina Liberty (Sunday 4/6 @ 6:30 PM ET)
The Play: Over 77.5
This was a tough game to make a pick for. Albany -18.5 is a lot of points but they are more than capable of laying it on if the offense is clicking.
Salina +18.5 is tempting because the Liberty have a talented roster that has just underperformed to start the season. Every position group is capable of performing with the best in the league except for the one that matters most: QB1.
I've picked Salina to cover each of their first two games and I am having a hard time mustering the strength to do it again. Fool me once, shame one me. Fool me --- fool me can't get fooled again!
Let's just have fun and root for points. At least with this, a Javin Kilgo pick six won't destroy me and will actual help the cause.
Prediction: 52-36 Albany
Let's have ourselves a weekend. Agree? Disagree? Are you riding or fading?
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