Just a brutal week for you friends at Off The Wall, going 1-4 on the week -- with that lone win coming in the final game of the slate. (bless you Tucson)
Hand up, I fell victim to the moment with San Antonio and ignored the red flags from their first game. Jacksonville +8.5 might go down as one of the dumbest picks in OTW history. I enjoyed the games of the Week 4, but this is how it felt watching my bets just have no chance of hitting all day.
Metaphorically, I'm the kid in this amazing GIF.
Week 4 in Review
Northern Arizona-San Antonio - Gunslingers +2.5 - Loser
Northern Arizona wins by 7
Bay Area-Jacksonville - Sharks +8.5 - Loser
Bay Area wins by 24
Tucson-Duke City - Tucson -4.5 - Winner
Northern Arizona wins by 6
Green Bay-Quad City - Over 85.5 - Loser
Combined for 56 points
Iowa-Tulsa - Over 77.5 - Loser
Combined for 70 points
Simply brutal, but I sort of take solace in being way off on a bet rather than losing in heartbreaking fashion. Green Bay-Quad CIty & NAZ-San Antonio were dead by halftime, so it was kinda nice just watching the game instead of sweating it out tbh (I'm coping just let me be).
But nonetheless, we persevere! Like the little mouse, we may struggle but we fight on. We won't quit!!
2024 IFL Record: 7-12
Let's find some winners:
Iowa Barnstormers @ Massachusetts Pirates (Friday 4/12 @ 6:05 PM CT)
The Play: Under 81.5
No context 3rd Rock From The Sun?!
This matchup features one of the worst offenses in the IFL (Iowa) vs one of the best defenses (Massachusetts), and it's going to be a slugfest. I would expect Massachusetts to go up early and we get a heavy dosage of Pirates RB Jimmie Robinson in the second half.
Iowa's defense has been able to keep them in games and will certainly have their hands full with this explosive Pirates offense. But will Iowa's offense be able to get on the board early and keep up? That is the question.
Pirates -14.5 is the second biggest line of the season, so I'm staying far away from it and taking the Under total.
Prediction - 45-29 Pirates
San Antonio Gunslingers @ Vegas Knight Hawks (Friday 4/12 @ 9:05 PM CT)
The Play: Under 102.5
Yeah yeah enough with the cliches. Back to the risotto, Gordon.
Going from an 81.5 line to 102.5 line -- this league!
This total feels like a trap line. It's the first triple digit total number of the IFL season, and San Antonio couldn't possible give up 57 or 63 AGAIN right? RIGHT?! The Gunslingers offense was tripping over themselves last week vs Northern Arizona and got them in a 4 possession hole in the 3rd quarter.
Vegas' defense is young and going through some growing pains, but they have been able to get to the quarterback and make plays for them all season, including helping them hold on to the victory vs Jacksonville a couple weeks back.
If Ja'Rome Johnson is fully healthy, I like Vegas to walk away with a win -- I just don't love the -7.5.
Prediction: 49-45 Vegas
Quad City Steamwheelers @ Frisco Fighters (Saturday 4/13 @ 7:05 PM CT)
The Play: Quad City +11.5
Steambo.. I mean Steamwheeler Willie! Save us!
There have been 3 games this season where a home team was favored by double digits, and those teams are 0-3 ATS (Week 2 Arizona, Week 2 Frisco, Week 3 Frisco). Frisco
Quad City looked rough against Green Bay and their O-line was dominated by the Blizzard D-Line last week, but they were uncharacteristically sloppy in other areas that put them in tough spots all night long. Their defense played well last week all things considered, and they'll need another great performance to slow down the 2023 IFL MVP TJ Edwards.
I don't think Quad City wins, but I think they keep it closer than people think.
Prediction: 44-37 Frisco
Tulsa Oilers @Sioux Falls Storm (Sunday 4/14 @ 3:05 PM CT)
The Play: Over 77.5
HUNKER DOWN!
Sioux Falls is coming off a bye and had an offensive rebound vs Massachusetts, where they were able to score 41 points after a rough season debut. QB Billy Hall looked so much better in that game and should continue to improve each week.
Tulsa had some trouble finishing drives in the end zone against Iowa, but it was encouraging to see how they were able to consistently drive the field throughout the game. I love the wide receiver group for the Oilers and think they have a big showing this weekend.
Prediction: 45-41 - Sioux Falls
San Diego Strike Force @ Arizona Rattlers (Sunday 4/14 @5:05 PM CT)
The Play: San Diego +2.5
Try explaining this GIF to your old pop-pop.
I have no choice but to take San Diego AND the points here. The Strike Force are 2-0 ATS this year and really demonstrated offensive prowess in their last game against the Gunslingers, where QB Nate Davis threw for 9 TD passes in a 69-61 win.
The Rattlers test will be a very different one than San Antonio, a much better defense and a defensive line that can put pressure on the QB, but I am going to pick SD until they prove me wrong. I'm very high on San Diego this year and I think they continue their winning streak to start the season 3-0.
Bay Area Panthers @ Tucson Sugar Skulls (Sunday 4/14 @5:05 PM CT)
The Play: Over 95.5
**Sugar Skull-ing intensifies**
Mylik Mitchell. Daquan Neal. Mylik Mitchell. Daquan Neal. Mylik Mitchell. Daquan Neal.
That is what I anticipate the play by play box score looking like for a majority of this game. Bay Area QB Daquan Neal, the 2019 IFL MVP, has looked incredibly comfortable in his first 2 games with the Panthers and is going to get better as the season progresses. Tucson's defense has shown moments of weakness through the first couple games and Neal should have himself a day.
Tucson QB Mylik Mitchell, a future IFL MVP, is dynamic and is a matchup nightmare for any defense when paired with RB Mike Jones in the red zone. Mitchell is hot right now coming off of a 7 TD performance against Duke City, so we might be in upset territory in Tucson!
Prediction: 58-54 Tucson
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