Last week I manifested that we would finish the season strong and BOY did Week 16 DELIVER for the kid. We've had our ups and downs this season, but last week was a gem.
Week 16 Review
Frisco Fighters vs San Antonio Gunslingers - Over 109.5 - Winner
Combined for 115 points (hit the total on the LAST play - electric)
Tucson Sugar Skulls vs Duke City Gladiators - Duke City -1.5 - Winner
Duke City wins 44-32
Jacksonville Sharks vs Sioux Falls Storm - Under 88.5 - Winner
Combined for 64 points
Green Bay Blizzard vs Tulsa Oilers - Tulsa +9 - Loser
Green Bay wins 54-20, never had a chance
Bay Area Panthers vs Vegas Knight Hawks - Bay Area +3 - Winner
Bay Area wins outright, 37-35
San Diego Strike Force vs Northern Arizona Wranglers - Over 99.5 - Winner
Combined for 100 points (phew)
Iowa Barnstormers vs Arizona Rattlers - Arizona -10.5 - Winner
Arizona wins 55-26
Quad City Steamwheelers vs Massachusetts Pirates - Under 88.5 - Winner
Combined for 87 points (phew)
Death. Taxes. Off The Wall not knowing how to make picks for Green Bay games.
But NONETHELESS -- 7-1 week baby! We had a couple picks come down to the wire (QC-MASS, FRI-SA) but the moment the bet becomes a winner after a sweat is one of the best feelings in the world. We're continuing to snowball our momentum to end the season. Let's have another winning week, shall we?
2024 IFL Record: 50-47-1
LET'S FIND SOME WINNERS!
Massachusetts Pirates @ San Antonio Gunslingers (Saturday 7/6 @ 6:05 PM CT)
The Play: Over 94.5
TD, XP, Deuce, FG, Rouge, TD, Dropkick XP..
This game is a weird one and one I am not super confident in (for full transparency).
Pros of the pick:
It's San Antonio's offense. Castronova & co have been incredibly proficient on offense.
It's San Antonio's defense. This defense is giving up 55.6 PPG and is on pace to be all time bad.
Cons of the pick:
It's Massachusetts' offense. They seem to play to the level of their competition, which might actually be a Pro as I type this out.
It's Massachusetts' defense. They've been stingy all year, but the last time these teams played their score 100+ IN Massachusetts. And they did just recently release one of the best LBs in the IFL & team captain Calvin Bundage..
Ya know what, f it. THEY ARE ALL PROS. GIVE ME THE OVER.
Prediction: 55-52 San Antonio
Jacksonville Sharks vs Iowa Barnstormers (Saturday 7/6 @ 7:05 PM CT)
The Play: Jacksonville +5.5
Am I really picking Jacksonville?
I'm honestly not sure if this is a pick for Jacksonville or against Iowa. Iowa is on their..
checks notes
4th QB of the season with Brandon Alt presumably starting again this week, and every single one of them has had issues with turning the ball over. Last week, Alt had 3 INTs against the Rattlers to continue that trend and eventually you have to wonder if the same thing keeps happening with different players....what is the actual problem?
New Sharks QB Kaleb Harker looked pretty good in his debut last week and seems to have brought some stablity and IFL leadership experience to this Sharks squad that has been missing it badly.
Iowa also just put their primary RB on IR & released one of the few playmakers they had on offense. Gimme the Sharks and the points. Iowa stinks.
Prediction: 41-37 Sharks
Sioux Falls Storm @ Quad City Steamwheelers (Saturday 7/6 @ 7:05 PM CT)
The Play: Quad City -6.5
Brace yourselves.. it's dollar beer night in Moline, IL
This might be my favorite spot of the entire weekend:
Quad City is 5-2 at home, averaging 10+ PPG more than they do on the road
It's $1 beer night in the final home game of the season
The last time Quad City had $1 beer night, something magical happened. The Steamwheelers are fighting for their playoff lives and need this game BADLY. They are in control of their own destiny and can clinch a playoff spot if they win out.
Sioux Falls has nothing to play for at this point. They recently released two of their primary defenders (LB Amin Black, DL Claude Davis) and have had multiple players land on the RTR list. Worst season in Storm history continues to spiral downward.
Prediction: 48-34 Quad City
Vegas Knight Hawks vs San Diego Strike Force (Saturday 7/6 @ 8:05 PM CT)
The Play: San Diego -2.5
It took way too many viewings to realize this was a mannequin.
This is likely going to be the best game of the weekend and is the ULTIMATE toss up game. Both teams have been very good all year and are jockeying for position in the Western Conference playoff chase.
What ended up tipping the scales in favor of San Diego for me is that Vegas made numerous roster changes on offense this week, including WR Caleb Holley going on the Season IR and releasing numerous other WRs & back up RB Taurean Taylor, who I have been high on.
That many changes against a defense that has been very opportunistic all year and getting better as the season progresses isn't ideal. The last time these teams played, it was a shootout that ended on some suspect penalty calls against San Diego. RB Trevon Van (formerly with the Strike Force earlier this season) just signed with Vegasm and adds an interesting wrinkle to the game storyline wise, but I think San Diego starts quick and puts the pressure on the new pieces of the puzzle in Vegas to figure out a way to come back.
Prediction: 50-42 San Diego
Frisco Fighters vs Duke City Gladiators (Sunday 7/7 @ 4:05 PM CT)
The Play: Duke City +10.5
Probably going to regret this
This was the game I had the hardest time picking this week. Frisco is rolling and fighting for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, but Duke City has been playing teams TOUGH the past couple of weeks.
Duke City is 5-1 ATS over their past 6 games and have looked like a totally different team with QB Hasan Rogers at the helm.
Frisco should still win this game easily, but they will be without RB Martez Carter who has been a part of that three headed attack with TJ Edwards & Justin Rankin over the past month. I think Duke City can backdoor cover this one and make it look closer than you'd think.
Prediction: 45-38 Frisco
Northern Arizona Wranglers @ Bay Area Panthers (Sunday 7/7 @ 5:05 PM CT)
The Play: Under 92.5
What he said
Bay Area Unders have been incredible so far this season and I would expect the trend to continue here. The Panthers have been in a lot of lower scoring, physical slugfests this season and I would anticipate this to be similar.
Northern Arizona is coming off of an emotional week and would expect them to play some inspired football to keep this one close.
The last time these teams played, Bay Area won 39-36 in a game dominated by RB Shane Simpson & the Bay Area defense. This go around, the game is in San Jose and I would expect a similar result.
Prediction: 42-36 Bay Area
Arizona Rattlers @ Tucson Sugar Skulls (Sunday 7/7 @ 5:05 PM CT)
The Play: Arizona -14.5
SsssSSsssSSSSssssss
Another week, another double digit spread for Arizona -- but it makes sense!
Tucson cut ties with their QB from the past few weeks, releasing QB Kenyatta Allen & signing QB Vincent Espinoza, who has spent time with Bay Area, Iowa, Tulsa & Billings throughout his indoor career. Adding in a new QB to a struggling offense against a team led by Dalton Sneed and furiously making a playoff push? Not a great recipe for success.
RB Shannon Brooks is on the Short Term IR, which is a little worrisome for the total but RB Carl Odom & WR Glen Gibbons Jr were just activated this week and will step in. I've been really impressed with Odom so far this season and Gibbons is gonna stretch the field.
Rattlers. Big.
Prediction: 54-32 Arizona
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